National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has shared market information from April to weigh the impact of recent economy on real estate in our area.  Here is what he shared:

  • Job numbers have retreated to the level during the summer of 2016.
  • Job loss leader by three-fold over the second biggest job loss sector (Education and Health) is the hospitality and leisure sector.  No surprise.  Even Government lost jobs!
  • We are seeing changes in how we live and do business. More remote/virtual work, wanting a bigger house and to move out of crowded urban areas.
  • Housing inventory was low pre-COVID and now it is even lower.  Pending sales and closings are up as you can see above in the info graphic, but actives are down so expect those numbers to dwindle.
  • Pending contracts were down in April, but have rebounded in June.
  • Closings were down in May, rebounded in June.
  • Housing starts are down which strengthens the resale market.
  • Mortgage applications hit a low on April 10th and have now recovered.  The jumbo market is still down.
  • Forecast for 2020 will have negative GDP of 4.5% with 2021 forecast to have positive 3%
  • Home prices forecast to still increase 3-5% over the total year with a more modest 1-3% increase in 2021.
  • Home sales numbers to lose 10-13% with a 13-18% rebound forecast for 2021.