• As of September 23rd, in Fountain Hills there was only one single family detached home (not a condominium or townhome) on the market under $500,000.
  • Sales of homes in Fountain Hills under $500,000 in 2021 are about half what they were in 2020 (from 165 to 88), and sales of homes over $1.0M in 2021 are double what they were in 2020 (from 54 to 114). The Luxury market in Fountain Hills is growing.
  • The average mortgage holder gained $20,000 in equity in the second quarter of 2021.
  • Lumber prices now closer to $400 per one thousand board feet down from the high this spring of $1600. Delivery times are still taking too long.
  • Cromford is reporting that Permits for new homes are up 32% for January through July this year and are at their highest since 2006. Considering the average build time for a new home is anywhere from 10-14 months due to supply chain disruptions, the resale market in general may be seeing more competition from new construction starting in the fourth quarter 2021 and into early 2022.
  • Nationally the average days on market is 18 days. This is up from the all-time low of 15 days seen this early summer, but it is still far lower than the 34 days we saw a year prior. Days on market is a good indicator of how fast or hot the market is moving.
  • Listing data is showing a 3-4% increase over last year, and this is the first sign of inventory increase since the pandemic. Still a strong seller’s market.

July market tidbits:

Has the Real Estate Market been hot?  Yes, it has, no surprise.

Will it continue?  The Cromford Report tracks the market in Maricopa County and change may be in the air:

  • The Luxury market ($1M+) has really stepped up in this recent strong seller’s market. The luxury buyer is not spurred on by income or a job, but by the Stock Market performance, corporate earnings, and currency markets.  Corporate profits were up in Q3 2020 and Q1 2021, and bitcoin hit a high in late April 2021.  New millionaires were created and off to find a house they went!
  • The Luxury buyer was not going to let a good interest rate go to waste, and 62% of luxury buyers chose to use financing.
  • What is an indication that prices could possibly go down, and the frenzy might cool? Watch Days on Market.  As they go up, the pressure on prices and urgency may slow.  Days on Market are inching up.  Part of this could also be attributed to seasonal slowing.  Also, we have not seen as many vacant properties which indicate motivated sellers.
  • Listings have started to go up, and contracts are going down.
  • Is the market poised for a crash like what happened in 2008? To see that scenario, we would need to see supply exceed demand.  Just the opposite is true. More likely to first see a more balanced market with the seller’s market moving weaker.
  • Is it a good time to buy?   With affordability still good as incomes are rising and homes are still predicted to appreciate at a rate faster than inflation.  Pair that with low interest rates to set up affordable payments.

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